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beadsland

@beadsland@mastodon.social

Maker & abolitionist; critic of pandemic apologism & the ableism of the Left.

Muckraking dataviz & generativist #lumpentheory.

Intricate words fulfill me:
Anticipate jargon here.

Ace enby aphant WP in #NYC.

they/them/gonzo/whatever

Masks are empathy fashion.
Own it—make it yours.

If you would throw me and mine to the wolves so to claim victory over those wolves, you can take your Democratic National Chamberlain 🤡 ass to someone else's mentions.

#CovidCautious
#Disability #CripTheory 🗡🥄

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. Browse more on the original instance.

18+ beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau latest updated early Nov—still no word on next release date.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer & fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111485340545695625

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared three summers ago—as fewer & fewer professionals have been available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been further elevated for near a year—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, over one in six pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing.

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 73%.

Weekly average ~95 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Some 321 (-24) counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥ 90%).

Of 267 (--) counties reporting any PICU capacity, near one in four are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above*—counties w/ 4 or fewer patients omitted):

⒈ Ada, ID ≥150%*
⒉ Raleigh, WV ≥150%*
⒊ Androscoggin, ME ≥150%*

⒋ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒌ Lewis and Clark, MT ≥150%

Idaho—130%

⒍ Florence, SC—126%
⒎ Daviess, KY—124%
⒏ Collier, FL—113%
⒐ Wicomico, MD—112%

  • Current map omits counties w/ pediatric patients but no staffed peds beds.

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18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by pediatric ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above*—counties with four or fewer PICU patients omitted):

⒈ Ada, ID ≥150%*

⒉ Mobile, AL—105%

⒊ Denton, TX—100%
⒋ Jefferson, TX—100%
⒌ Brazos, TX—100%
⒍ Roanoke city, VA—100%

⒎ Hamilton, TN—99%
⒏ Pitt, NC—98%
⒐ Collin, TX—98%
⒑ Tarrant, TX—97%

  • Current map omits counties w/ PICU patients but no staffed PICU beds.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Some 45 (-4) counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 167 (-62)—near 7% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—over one in six are full or near full.

❖

18+ beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau latest updated early Nov—still no word on next release date.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer & fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111406049215108568

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared three summers ago—as fewer & fewer professionals have been available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been further elevated for near a year—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, over one in six pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing.

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 74%.

Weekly average ~90 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Some 286 (+21) counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥ 90%).

Of 269 (+8) counties reporting any PICU capacity, over one in four are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above*—counties with four or fewer patients omitted):

⒈ Ada, ID ≥150%*
⒉ Androscoggin, ME ≥150%*
⒊ St. Clair, IL ≥150%*
⒋ Raleigh, WV ≥150%*

⒌ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒍ Collier, FL ≥150%
⒎ Lewis & Clark, MT ≥150%
⒏ Florence, SC ≥150%

⒐ Shelby, OH—126%

  • Current map omits counties with pediatric patients but no staffed peds beds.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by pediatric ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above*—counties with four or fewer PICU patients omitted):

⒈ Ada, ID ≥150%*

⒉ Suffolk, NY—111%
⒊ Monroe, NY—105%

⒋ Denton, TX—100%
⒌ Jefferson, TX—100%
⒍ Brazos, TX—100%

⒎ Pitt, NC—100%
⒏ Cameron, TX—100%
⒐ Florence, SC—100%

⒑ Hamilton, TN—99%

  • Current map omits counties w/ PICU patients but no staffed PICU beds.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Some 48 (+5) counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 204 (+16)—near 8½% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—near one in six are full or near full.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by adult hospital capacity (darkest counties on map above*):

⒈ Madison Parish, LA ≥150%*

⒉ Shelby, OH ≥150%
⒊ Seminole, GA ≥150%

⒋ Smyth, VA—131%
⒌ Barton, KS—131%

⒍ Wise, VA—121%
⒎ Buchanan, MO—115%

⒏ Warren, MS—108%
⒐ Kenton, KY—105%
⒑ Yuma, AZ—105%

  • Current map omits counties with patients but no staffed beds.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by adult ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above*):

⒈ Elmore, AL ≥150%*
⒉ Summit, CO ≥150%*

⒊ Shelby, OH ≥150%
⒋ Lincoln, MS ≥150%

⒌ Montgomery, AL—111%
⒍ Natchitoches Parish, LA—110%

⒎ Houston, AL—106%
⒏ Cheshire, NH—104%
⒐ Tazewell, VA—103%
⒑ Danville city, VA—101%

  • Current map omits counties with ICU patients but no staffed ICU beds.

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18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Third week of Eris EG.5.1 wave, with Eris dot6 child HV.1 near ³⁄₁₀ of CDC samples as of two weeks ago

Once again no update due to U.S. holiday.

For 2-wk GISAID sequences, Eris EG.5.1 fam at ½ share, with HV.1 already over ¼ share. Arcturus XBB.1.16 family below ⅕. Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 fam above ⅒.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖

CDC's Variant Nowcast showing weighted estimated distribution of variants over fortnights ending 8/5/23 thru 10/14/23, with model-projected estimates for following two fortnights. Proportional stacked bar chart, where each color represents a different variant, inclusive of those descendants not otherwise broken out. Kraken XBB.1.5 (indigo) was dominant through May. Now crowded out by Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash), EG.5 (peach, incl. Eris EG.5.1), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss), Eris dot1 child HK.3 (dark pastel blue), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover). Meanwhile, newly added Kraken dot102 XBB.1.5 grandkid JD.1.1 and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 kid JF.1 both growing rapidly. XBB.1.5 estimated at 2.4%, 0.7% and 0.3% vs. 2.8% fortnight of 9/30, for average -47% biweekly drop in estimated share. JD.1.1 at 1.4%, 3.0% and 4.6% vs. 1.3%, for avg +58% gain in est. share. FL.1.5.1 at 10.5%, 10.7% and 9.3% vs. 11.8%, for avg -7% loss in est. share. EG.5 at 23.3%, 22.8% and 21.7% vs. 23.8%, for avg -3% loss in est. share. HK.3 at 3.4%, 5.2% and 7.8% vs. 1.9%, for avg. +61% gain in share. HV.1 at 16.9%, 23.6% and 29.0% vs. 12.7%, for avg. +32% gain in share. XBB.1.16.6 at 8.3%, 7.2% and 5.6% vs. 9.2%, for avg -15% loss in share. JF.1 at 2.1%, 2.8% and 3.5% vs. 1.4%, for avg +36% gain in est. share. ALT-text by beadsland on Ko-fi.

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

After 14 weeks, CDC still had no estimates for New England; again dropped PNW & Lower Midwest.

Eris dot6 child HV.1 at ~¼–⅓ share in all tracked regions, w/ undifferentiated Eris fam EG.5 another ⅙–³⁄₁₀ share.

Eris dot1 child HK.3 was near ⅒ in Southwest, NY/NJ and Great Lakes.

[See toot above for variants CDC map color key & links to sources for charts.]

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Map: Nowcast Estimates for 10/29/2023 - 11/11/2023 by HHS Region Source: Centers for Disease Control Map shows pie charts for about half of 10 regions, reflecting regional estimated proportions for specimens collected two weeks ending 11/11/2023. Bold annotation overwrites map, reading "Nowcast estimates are only available for regions 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 and 9." Regions 1 (New England), 6 (Middle South), 7 (Lower Midwest), and 10 (Northwest) are empty grey. Dominant strains by region: NY/NJ: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 29.8%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 19.8%), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 15.9%), and Eris dot1 child HK.3 (dark pastel blue 9.0%). Mid-Atlantic: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 34.7%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 18.5%), and Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 11.3%). Southeast: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 31.5%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 18.7%), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 8.9%). Great Lakes: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 27.4%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 21.2%), and Eris dot1 child HK.3 (dark pastel blue 8.6%). Mtn/Dakotas: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 25.4%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 24.1%), and Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 7.7%). Southwest: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 28.2%), Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 24.9%), and Eris dot1 child HK.3 (dark pastel blue 9.2%). ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

After unanticpated debugging, nearly done backporting decorated rectangles to orchard chart of experimental variants proportions . Next step will be to flesh out remaining functionality. Still planning on Nov. release to replace CDC charts in toots above, replacing Tableau in Dec.

Work on area-chart capacity and levels choropleth still planned thereafter, along with scripts for working with CDC Wonder mortality data.

Chart: Experimental: Skinning CDC's Variant Nowcast Subtitle: Adding common names and grouping by common-name families. Five rectangular tree-charts, side by side, for fortnights ending October 1-14. A legend to the right is organized by subheadings, with the items under each subheading being different intensities of a shared color. Percentages overlay each color key. [These are for the last of the five tree charts.] Comparing the charts, it is evident that Arcturus XBB.1.16 family (red) has recently moved from first position to third, outpaced by Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2 / EG family (purple), inclusive of Eris EG.5.1 family (brown). Legend: Hyperion-2 [purple] 24% - EG.5 & EG.6.1 ⅘% - other Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2 / EG Arcturus [red/orange] 9% - XBB.1.16.11, XBB.1.16.1 / FU, HF.1 & XBB.1.16.15 / JM 2% - JF.1 8% - other XBB.1.16.6 / JF 4% - other Arcturus XBB.1.16 Hippogryph XBB.1 [blue] 13% - Fornax FL.1.5.1 / HN, Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 / FL, XBB.1.42.2 / HL & FE.1.1 3% - GK.1.1 & GK.2 2% - JD.1.1, XBB.1.5.68 / HZ, XBB.1.5.72, XBB.1.5.10, XBB.1.5.59, EU.1.1, XBB.1.5.1 / HJ ⅙% - FD.1.1 & FD.2 1% - XBB.1.5.70 / GK 2% - other Kraken XBB.1.5 Eris EG.5.1 [brown] 20% - HV.1 & HK.3 Gryphon [green] 1% - GE.1 & XBB.2.3.8 / HG 4% - other Acrux XBB.2.3 2% - other Gryphon XBB Other [grey] 0% - BA.4 0% - Aeterna BA.4.6, Cerebrus BQ.1.1 & BA.1.1 1% - Orthus CH.1.1 & other Omicron-2 BA.2 ⁵⁄₆% - B.1.617.2 / AY, other Omicron B.1.1.529 BA & Other (not specified)

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Folk are dying at record numbers, of comorbidities of severe acute covid that are also implicated as post-acute sequelae of covid infection. ↺

Of course, ongoing hospital staffing attrition also contributes to elevated death tolls. Said attrition continues. ↺

[CDC ended excess death reporting Sep 27.]

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Chart: Elevated Non-Circulatory Causes of Death: Annualized Dev. from 2015-2019 Avg Data: CDC, Census. Reflects death certs that do not identify covid as underlying cause. [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines 2015–20; solid dots for annualized Jan 2021–June 2023. [Six weeks incomplete data omitted.] Dotted lines for trends from Jan 2020 forward, for each disease category. Dash-dot line for sepsis trend had concerted effort at reduction in 2019 not occurred. Legend: • Diabetes (+10K more annualized deaths vs. 2019) • Alzheimers and dementia (+18K) • Renal failure (+5K) • Sepsis (+4K) • Malignant neoplasms (+14K) • Projected U.S. 65+ population Caption: After spiking in first year of the pandemic, annualized Alzheimer disease and dementia mortality dropped just as swiftly, thereafter remaining near or below historical trend. Diabetes mortality has not been so quick to recover from first year spike, only beginning to decline in the second half of last year, though still well above pre-pandemic trend. Deaths by sepsis were markedly down in 2019, following a coordinated national effort by hospitals. Despite this, sepsis mortality has been climbing at a rate well above even pre-2019’s relatively flat trendline, for over three years now. Renal failure deaths didn’t see an appreciable climb until the latter part of 2021, peaking only months ago. Meanwhile, malignant neoplasm (cancer) deaths, slower to manifest, have been suggestively creeping above trend for well over a year.

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Given evidence linking covid infection to sudden onset liver damage, recent increased liver disease mortality is hardly surprising.

Final mortality data for 2020—released on Friday—reveals spike in accidental deaths driven by poisonings & exposure to noxious substances.

[CDC data for 2021 due this year.]

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Chart: Causes of Accidental Deaths: Reported Annual Data Data: National Center for Health Statistics [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines for annual data for years 2015 through 2020. Chart is blank 2021 to 2022. Legend: • Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances (up 32.9% btw. 2019 & 2020) [~87K total in 2020] • Motor vehicle accidents (up 8.4%) [42K] • Falls (up 6.8%) [42K] • Accidental hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (down -4.1%) [7K] • Accidental drowning and submersion (up 13.1%) [4K] • Accidental exposure to smoke, fire, and flames (up 9.6%) [3K] • Accidental discharge of firearms (up 10.1%) [½K] • All other unintentional injuries (down -1.2%) [15K] [A table below the legend ranks these items by rate of change.] Captions: Historically, U.S. health authorities have published “Final Data”—detailed tables and demographic analysis of causes of mortality—about eighteen months, give or take, from the close of each calendar year. It took nearly thirty-three months to release final data for 2020. Data for 2021 remains significantly overdue. ---- Despite popular conjecture, the observed sharp increase in accidental deaths between 2019 and 2020 was not due to motor vehicle accidents. Rather, accidental poisonings—up by a third over the prior year—account for nearly all the increase in elevated deaths by accidental causes.

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Per WHO, every 12 minutes four people die of acute covid. Three of those deaths are in the United States.

Entering April, for every three covid deaths, U.S. saw another excess death not attributed to covid.

The emergency is over—covid is not done with us.

[U.S. holiday no data—share chart advances 9 days.]

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Chart: U.S. Share of 28-Day Covid Deaths Data: WHO (via Our World in Data), NCHS (via CDC), official srcs (via Wikipedia) [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Shows covid 28-day mortality as reported for the U.S. as share of G8, G20, and global 28-day mortality, for 3 years through Nov 14, 2023, this being the most recent date on which at least 50% of world population was represented in weekly reporting (see note regarding ◇ data points, below). Share of population for each comparison is provided for reference. With the end of PHE aggregate tracking, U.S. ceased reporting covid deaths to WHO. After 5/14/23, chart uses provisional covid deaths from NCHS. ◇ data points represent sum population (via Wikipedia) of those countries that reported at least one death in prior week, as percentage of world pop. [Down to near 60% as of July. Was 90% last August.] 7-day avg of U.S. share of G8 covid deaths flattened somewhat, around 75.3%, well exceeding share of pop. (~38%). Same date last year, share of G8 covid deaths was 39.3%, jaggedly climbing toward winter. Avg. U.S. share of G20 covid deaths down to 45.2% (vs. ~7% of G20 population). Same date last year: 21.9%. U.S. share of global parallels: now 46.4% (vs. ~4% of pop.). This date last year, U.S. share of global covid deaths was 24.1%. All three metrics were near or below respective populations roughly May–Aug 2021; thereafter have been profoundly higher than population but for few troughs, including a data dump by China in May 2023.

jmcrookston , (edited ) to random
@jmcrookston@mastodon.social avatar
  • At beginning when there were thousands of cases in China and China was reacting with speed, people said, "no human to human spread". WHO's own lead rep on the ground noted you could draw conclusions from how firmly China was responding.

[originally posted mid-2022]

beadsland ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

@jmcrookston apropos:

Walker, K., “Without Evidence, there is No Answer”: Uncertainty and Scientific Ethos in the Silent Spring[s] of Rachel Carson

https://read.dukeupress.edu/environmental-humanities/article/2/1/101/61603/Without-Evidence-There-Is-No-Answer-Uncertainty

We've been here before.

18+ beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent mid-Oct—next update due November 8.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer & fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]
Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111247100832074241

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared two summers ago—as fewer and fewer professionals have been available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been further elevated for months now—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, near one in five pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing.

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 68%.

Weekly average ~95 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Some 237 (-1) counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥ 90%).

Of 271 (+3) counties reporting any PICU capacity, over one in five are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒉ Nevada, CA ≥133⅓%
⒊ Barton, KS ≥150%

Idaho—133%

⒋ Fairfax, VA—112%

⒌ Buncombe, NC—100%
⒍ Somerset, NJ—100%
⒎ Bonneville, ID—100%
⒏ Medina, TX—100%
⒐ Anoka, MN—100%
⒑ Onslow, NC—100%

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18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by pediatric ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above—counties with four or fewer PICU patients omitted):

⒈ Anchorage Muni., AK—100%
⒉ Brazos, TX—100%
⒊ Jefferson, TX—100%

⒋ Fulton, GA—99%

⒌ Caddo Parish, LA—96%
⒍ Miami-Dade, FL—96%
⒎ Bell, TX—96%

⒏ Monongalia, WV —95%
⒐ Durham, NC—94%
⒑ Duval, FL—94%

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18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Some 50 (-1) counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 198 (-6)—over 8⅛% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—over one in six are full or near full.

❖

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by adult hospital capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒉ Chatham, GA ≥150%
⒊ Barton, KS ≥150%
⒋ Marshall, KY ≥150%

⒌ Smyth, VA—122%
⒍ Wise, VA—119%

⒎ Yuma, AZ—108%
⒏ Buchanan, MO—108%
⒐ Kenton, KY—107%
⒑ Boone, KY—105%

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18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Counties by adult ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above):

⒈ Chatham, GA ≥150%
⒉ Marshall, KY ≥150%

⒊ Montgomery, AL—103%

⒋ Alachua, FL—100%

⒌ Fayette, GA—100%
⒍ Stearns, MN—100%
⒎ Lynchburg city, VA—100%
⒏ Muskegon, MI—100%
⒐ Anoka, MN—100%
⒑ Jackson, MS—100%

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18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Second week of Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2/EG wave, CDC Nowcast estimates third of samples are Eris EG.5.1 descendants—with Eris scion HV.1 at ¼ of samples.

For 3-week GISAID sequences, Hyperion-2 near half share, with Eris fam over ⅖. Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 fam down to ⅒. Arcturus XBB.1.16 fam still over ⅕.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖

Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 21-DAY TRENDS Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan) Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 21 days | Updated on 10/27/23 3:39:40 AM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID Bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state. Data has been filtered to show dozens of Pangolin subvariants of XBB.1.9.2, including parent. Top subvariants: Eris dot6 kid HV.1 (33.00%), Eris dot1 EG.5.1.1. (13.08%), Eris EG.5.1 (12.15%), Eris dot1 kid HK.3 (8.95%), Eris dot6 EG.5.1.6 (5.65%). Raj has standardized bubbles to red (XBB.1.9.2*, incl. EG & HV), although some newer pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau. Bubbles largest and most prominent for: HV.1 (red) for New York (85), California (57), Texas (36), Minnesota, Washington, New Jersey, Arizona, and a North state; HK.3 (red) for New York and California; EG.5.1.1 (red) for California, New York, and Minnesota; EG.5.1.3 (red) for California; EG.5.1 (red) for Minnesota, EG.5.1.3 (red) for California, EG.5.1.4 (red) for New York. Dozens of additional smaller bubbles for various variants and states.

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

After 12 weeks, CDC finally has estimates for NW; still not for New Eng; dropped Middle South again 2 wks ago.

Eris dot6 child HV.1 is between ⅕–⅓ share in all tracked regions, with undifferentiated Eris fam EG.5 another ⅙–⅓ share.

Fornax between ¹⁄₁₁–⅕ share all but south coast.

[See toot above for variants CDC map color key & links to sources for charts.]

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Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 21-DAY TRENDS Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan) Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 21 days | Updated on 10/27/23 3:39:40 AM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID Bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state. Data has been filtered to show near two hundred Pangolin subvariants, excluding XBB.1.9.2* lineage. Top subvariants: Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (15.09%), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (13.55%), Arcturus dot11 XBB.1.16.11 (6.07%). Raj has standardized bubbles to orange (Kraken XBB.1.5.), pink (Hyperion XBB.1.9.1, incl. FL), green (Arcturus XBB.1.16., incl. HF), yellow (Acrux XBB.2.3.), brown (XBB.1.18.), purple (XBB.1.22.), blue (BA.2.75.*), and grey (all others but for XBB.1.9.2 lineage); although some newer pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau. Bubbles largest and most prominent for: Fornax FL.1.5.1 (pink) for New York (59), California and Texas; XBB.1.16.6 (green) for New York, California, Texas and Minnesota; HF.1 (green) for Minnesota; XBB.1.16.11 (green) for Utah. Innumerable additional variously smaller bubbles for near 200 variants, across various states.

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Despite a family emergency this week, added another two hundred lines refactoring and developing decorated legends. These & decorated pie charts will be incorporated into experimental variant proportions hopefully in November, to replace the CDC & Tableau screenshots in toots above.

Work on area-chart capacity & levels choropleth still planned thereafter, along with scripts for working with CDC Wonder mortality data.

Chart: Annoplot Dataviz Library*: Project Profile Subtitle: 7.4K lines† across component modules and significant submodules. Multi-level pie chart organized into five major categories by color. Each outer wedge shows a tally of the number of lines for that sub-component. Blue "artists/pie" wedge and green "devpie" wedge largely exploded out by chart, "artists/text" less so. Numerous other wedges exploded out somewhat. A few other wedges are very slightly outward. Caption: * Pre-release development version 2023-10-28 † Python, Markdown, and C source files. Blank lines omitted form tallies. Exploded wedges reflect proportions of lines changed in last 30 days. Dotted areas represent non-blank comment lines and Markdown. Wedges: 🔴 levels 🧀 [blank wedge] - 474 🧀 hospitals - 280 🟣 chirp 🧀 [blank] - 284 🧀 audio - 241 🔵 annoplot 🧀 [blank] - 508 🧀 artists - 590 🧀 artists/pie - 218 🧀 artists/text - 303 🧀 coord - 589 🧀 coord/base - 250 🧀 margin - 246 🧀 util - 427 🟢 tiop 🧀 [blank] - 188 🧀 bullseye - 321 🧀 capacity - 455 🧀 devpie - 513 🧀 variants - 83 🧀 variants/orchard - 330 🧀 variants/plot - 223 🧀 variants/tree - 402 ⚫ . [a period by itself] 🧀 [blank] - 280 🧀 [blank] - 237 TODO.md

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Folk are dying at record numbers, of comorbidities of severe acute covid that are also implicated as post-acute sequelae of covid infection. ↺

Of course, ongoing hospital staffing attrition also contributes to elevated death tolls. Said attrition continues. ↺

[CDC ended excess death reporting Sep 27.]

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Chart: Elevated Non-Circulatory Causes of Death: Annualized Dev. from 2015-2019 Avg Data: CDC, Census. Reflects death certs that do not identify covid as underlying cause. [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines 2015–20; solid dots for annualized Jan 2021–June 2023. [Six weeks incomplete data omitted.] Dotted lines for trends from Jan 2020 forward, for each disease category. Dash-dot line for sepsis trend had concerted effort at reduction in 2019 not occurred. Legend: • Diabetes (+10K more annualized deaths vs. 2019) • Alzheimers and dementia (+18K) • Renal failure (+5K) • Sepsis (+4K) • Malignant neoplasms (+14K) • Projected U.S. 65+ population Caption: After spiking in first year of the pandemic, annualized Alzheimer disease and dementia mortality dropped just as swiftly, thereafter remaining near or below historical trend. Diabetes mortality has not been so quick to recover from first year spike, only beginning to decline in the second half of last year, though still well above pre-pandemic trend. Deaths by sepsis were markedly down in 2019, following a coordinated national effort by hospitals. Despite this, sepsis mortality has been climbing at a rate well above even pre-2019’s relatively flat trendline, for over three years now. Renal failure deaths didn’t see an appreciable climb until the latter part of 2021, peaking only months ago. Meanwhile, malignant neoplasm (cancer) deaths, slower to manifest, have been suggestively creeping above trend for well over a year.

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Given evidence linking covid infection to sudden onset liver damage, recent increased liver disease mortality is hardly surprising.

Final mortality data for 2020—released on Friday—reveals spike in accidental deaths driven by poisonings & exposure to noxious substances.

[CDC data for 2021 due this year.]

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Chart: Causes of Accidental Deaths: Reported Annual Data Data: National Center for Health Statistics [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines for annual data for years 2015 through 2020. Chart is blank 2021 to 2022. Legend: • Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances (up 32.9% btw. 2019 & 2020) [~87K total in 2020] • Motor vehicle accidents (up 8.4%) [42K] • Falls (up 6.8%) [42K] • Accidental hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (down -4.1%) [7K] • Accidental drowning and submersion (up 13.1%) [4K] • Accidental exposure to smoke, fire, and flames (up 9.6%) [3K] • Accidental discharge of firearms (up 10.1%) [½K] • All other unintentional injuries (down -1.2%) [15K] [A table below the legend ranks these items by rate of change.] Captions: Historically, U.S. health authorities have published “Final Data”—detailed tables and demographic analysis of causes of mortality—about eighteen months, give or take, from the close of each calendar year. It took nearly thirty-three months to release final data for 2020. Data for 2021 remains significantly overdue. ---- Despite popular conjecture, the observed sharp increase in accidental deaths between 2019 and 2020 was not due to motor vehicle accidents. Rather, accidental poisonings—up by a third over the prior year—account for nearly all the increase in elevated deaths by accidental causes.

18+ beadsland OP ,
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

@jmcrookston That the attack surface for this virus, the ACE-2 receptor, is common to organs throughout the body, including the liver, doesn't help.

It's one thing to filter something. It's another thing to filter something while that same thing is attacking the filter, as just one more engine of replication.

18+ beadsland OP , (edited )
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

@jmcrookston And yet the apologist gaslight still equivocates even the flu with "just a cold".

As if any system that ever existed anywhere could be immune to wear and tear—by sheer force of confidence.

apropos: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111020763066982323

18+ beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent data last Wed—next update due Novem. 8.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer & fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111207900053730309

beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Too many think
The immune system
Is like a muscle,

When it's really
Like a telomere

Or a yellow,
No. 2 pencil:

Senescence ain't
Need for exercise,

But is rather
A wearing… away.

beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent data mid-August—next update anticipated Sept 20.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer and fewer staff our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/110969468590219518

beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Have a young friend considering joining the fedi.

Recommendations for best instances for folk to find new neurodiverse friends?

(If the server also happens to be home to a cadre of folk, such overlap would be superb!)

beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Wishing for the time and spoons to figure out how to import my toot archive into a self-hosted instance.

Cause without that, kinda stuck.

beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Masks are empathy fashion.

Send toot.

beadsland , to random
@beadsland@mastodon.social avatar

Razorcake Webcomic by Silas Haglund

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