This prediction market has May at 50%, and that’s mainly because I keep buying it off he back of news like this. Seems like a lot of people are May doubters.
Reasons I think May is the most likely candidate are:
expected polling bounce off a giveaway budget in March
small boat numbers are at their natural minimum and only rise as Summer begin
later in the year you start running into things like party conference, which you don’t want to miss, and fuel bills, which are going to be a bad news story again. Even if you rank “holding on to power above all else” as the most important thing, a late Q4 election looks a terrible mistake.