It's going to get a bit chilly the next few days , butin spite of that I hope you're haivng a great Spring! 💐💐💐
🔴Reminder: If you've built a Corsi-Rosenthal box, you can get lots of seasonal allergy relief by running it! CR boxes have many, many practical uses besides just controlling air particles that carry pathogens.
There was nothing much new to post on Monday plus I had a bunch of family things to handle (and doing this, admittedly takes time) so I apologize again for not posting. But you know the saying "no news is good news" and that defintiely applies to these updates.
I'm going to try and update the link list ASAP.
I hope you still find all this useful and informative. I hope the medical community finds these accurate and reliable.
VOCs
While we are experiencing a MOST welcome lull in COVID numbers right now, disease modelers are predicting a bump up in numbers at the end of this month.: https://ibb.co/YpnpfMF
This is due to a variant block that have specific mutations. Together they are nicknamed the FLiRT group and are named so because their most important mutations are located at S:F456L and S:R346T within the structure of the pathogen.
🔴Right now FLiRT mutes have an 8% advantage even over JN.1. That's fast.: https://ibb.co/NshJLK6
The most important VOCs out there right now are the variants that have the FLiRT designation, and I've highlighted these mutes on these screenshots in pink.
Remember that there is nowhere near the amount of national testing or sequencing that should be implemented, so it makes trying to predict growth activity more difficult.
Nationally, lots of FLiRT mutations out there. It is unknown whether they are fast enough to cause a wave altogether, but they're fast enough to compete with JN.1 to eventually take over quite a bit of the current leaderboard.: https://ibb.co/S7kCkpH
In PA, we have quite a few FLiRT mutation here but these mutes are in relatively low numbers, so far.: https://ibb.co/bdhJwKv
In NY/NJ, FLiRT mute JN.1.4 already in second place on the leaderboard at over 9% of random sequencing. The other FLiRT variants will undoubtedly catch up.: https://ibb.co/ZBgYP2G
Here you can see FLiRT's innate growth advantage compared to JN variants.: https://ibb.co/3swYQ4r
Here you can see JN.1's innate growth advantage compared to older variants.: https://ibb.co/DfH6j53
Wastewater
Nationally we're still on the bottom of the lull. This might be the lowest point of the whole year as our numbers ongoing could match 2022/2023, where we had quite a bump up in the middle of the summer (because, reminder: COVID doesn't have a "season", it can bump those numbers up anytime it gets lucky with a new mutation!).: https://ibb.co/3mVzfx9
In PA, wastewater still low pretty much everywhere which is great. MontCo SMASHING it, going way below national levels!!: https://ibb.co/TbrQgk7
CDC
The counties showing high increase in hospital admits has shifted around. Now the counties with the highest increases are along the NY border and down in the Southwest corner surrounding Greene Co. Adams and York also showing high end increases. Philly corner showing moderate increases.: https://ibb.co/cQRgbwM
The % inpatient beds map looks very good! stable or decreasing everywhere, except some increases in Columbia Co up going Northeast to Wayne Co.: https://ibb.co/Q8JMZvh
Staffed ICU beds in the vast majority of counties steady or going down...except Columbia, Luzerne and Wyoming in the eastern half of the State and Centre, Clearfield and Jefferson in Central PA.: https://ibb.co/5kXgcYR
Other Pathogens
We're still high in non-SARS2 respiratory pathogens according the WastewaterSCAN. FluA, FluB, and Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) are still HIGH.
Gastro stuff is very high too, Norovirus and Roitavirus.
🔴Keep the air clean, be aware of social contacts and wear a quality respirator in crowds and in places where air filteration is suboptimal. Stay home of you are sick to beat the respiratory stuff.
🔴WASH HANDS with warm water and soap for at least 20 seconds to beat Noro and Rota. Rinse off fruits and veg before you eat them. Be aware of food handling safety in the kitchen. Don't send kids to school with this.
Mostly because...Noro and Rota are not only extremely contagious, they're also just...gross. 🤢
Why is Ron talking about routes of #influenza transmission that are nowhere to be found in the literature? Can someone find a study demonstrating waterborne flu? 'Cause I certainly can't
I hope you had a clear and safe view of the eclipse on Tuesday!!! 🌗🌘🌑
I hope you also have a great and safe Spring now that warmer weather is finally here! 💐💐💐
VOCs
Nothing much new to report on new variants (which is why I didn't post on Monday...absolutely nothing was updated at all...wastewater, CDC, variants, etc.).
JN.1 and JN.1.4 still at the top of the leaderboard.
The fastest two variants now in the US are JN.1.18 and KP.2 (which is a descendant of JN.1.11.1) and though the two are making gains every update, they don't seem to be near as fast as JN.1 was.: https://ibb.co/zFNhBF7
There are no new imminently concerning variants on the horizon right now.
Wastewater
National level is still MEDIUM on WastewaterSCAN but we're now approaching where we were at this time last year. Still a ways to go to get to LOW levels but at least it isn't going up for now.: https://ibb.co/yR8ttZ1
Wastewater is showing SARS2 actually increasing in the UPark area.:https://ibb.co/K2MWY4G
PLEASE use quality respirators, be aware of social contacts, and KEEP THE AIR CLEAN!
Other Pathogens
WastewaterSCAN has us at MEDIUM for SARS2 but there's still a LOOOOOT out there that is HIGH.: https://ibb.co/R6R5jDM
FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovirus(HMPV) and gastro pathogens Norovirus and Rotavirus are still HIGH nationally.
In PA, the highest by far is Noro, but also FluA and FluB is very high.
Wear respirators to control SARS2 and WASH THOSE HANDSIES to control the gastro stuff! 👐
UPark has got some work to do with pathogen control. Levels are going up/lagging behind on handling SARS2, FluA, FluB, HMPV, Noro.: https://ibb.co/YcvPpJg
Please get a handle of this stuff, UPark.
H5N1
A condensed version of the current state of H5N1:
H5N1 IS NOT NEW.
So far, the only human cases of contracting H5N1 are through direct contact with infected animals.
So far, scientists are still unsure of how H5N1 affects cattle. THIS IS in fact, NEW.
The vast majority are in Texas. 40% of Panhandle cattle have been infected, and that area produces 82% of Texas' milk. This is LOTS of room for new mutations to develop.: https://ibb.co/yFr2Rm1
New Mexico
Idaho
North Carolina
Ohio
Michigan
Kansas
South Dakota.
These states are not in the paths of migratory birds so contaminated FEED is suspected. The feed is contaminated by practices that are LEGAL in the US but BANNED in Canada and Europe....mainly, feeding bird waste to cattle.
🔴 Feed for swine was DEREGULATED in 2018 and MUST be re-regulated to protect swine from H5N1. They are genetically similar to humans and can easily percolate a mutation that spreads to humans.: https://ibb.co/NxdSJm7
🔴 Feed for all farm animals must be regulated and animal waste must be kept out of farm animal food.
Like COVID, H5N1 has the ability to gain new mutations from new hosts. THIS IS NOT A NEW CONCEPT.
Some things to watch for that are NOT CURRENT but are progressively bad:
--Cattle-to-cattle transmission proven.
--Contaminant-to-swine (pigs) develop.
--Swine-to-Human acquired.
--Human-to-human transmisison proven.
The first three have to somehow happen before the fourth happens. None of these things seem to be imminent but that progression will mirror pathogens like Spanish Flu.
I keep spending a lot of time on this because I cannot stress enough that H5N1 in humans has a 50% kill (case fatality) rate so far. A vaccine does exist for H5N1 for both humans and birds, but the human version is not stored in mass quantities for now.
Some things we can do together to lessen the chances of allowing H5N1 to mutate:
🔴 Lobby for CLEAN animal feed for swine, cattle, and fowl.
🔴 Buy dairy products from smaller, more humane farms. Grass-fed cattle and free-range chicken eggs are more expensive, but better than battery farming products where thousands of animals are squeezed together.
🔴 Buy ultra-pasteurized dairy products (most of our cream is ultra pasteurized anyway).
🔴 Insist that farm birds are vaccinated against H5N1.
🔴 I can't stress enough that farm feed must be HUMANE and REGULATED. This is not political, this is literally to stop a highly pathogenic disease from becoming capable of infecting humans.
Contaminated cattle feed is exactly how the prion infection called Mad Cow Disease begun.
Clean feed and happy farm animals make better, cleaner, and healthier products!
There are always simple things we can all do to prevent the possibility of dangerous pathogen mutations!
Source control is the most important part to keeping life, learning, and financial loss to a minimum.
I hope you all continue to have a great Spring! 💐💐💐
Queensland: "Doctors are acquiring RSV, COVID and influenza in the state’s hospitals in rising numbers, sparking the state’s peak medical body to call for urgent action to better protect medics in an already struggling healthcare workforce."
JN.1 and JN.1.4 stil dominate the leaderboard, but scientists are especially watching a groiup of new mutations including JN.1.18, JN.1.13, KP.2, JN.1.16, and KQ.1.: https://ibb.co/6RvHcZR
Some of these are moving FAST despite the already-very-fast mutations on the landscape.
Wastewater
We've reached a level of SARS2 material in wastewater low enough to match previous years (2020, 2021.): https://ibb.co/DMyG0k4
CDC
Quite a lot of counties with new hospital admits, especially the Western half of the State. The Southwest corner by Greene Co and from Centre on over to Erie Co and Jefferson are HIGH on the newest chart.: https://ibb.co/m6KYR0Z
The Inpatient Beds chart looks good except for some increases in Lawrence and around Cameron Cos.: https://ibb.co/SPm1wJt
The ICU bed chart looks very good! Most counties are having decreases! However some increases up by Pike Co and significant increases in Franklin and Fulton Cos.:https://ibb.co/sKdK54P
Research
Tuberculosis after recovering from COVID-19 is becoming more common.: https://ibb.co/ZxZ7kHY
Reactivation of underlying pathogens is NOT NEW. We know this factually from the chicken pox/shingles pathogen.
Also, measles is known to reset the ENTIRE immune system and bring protection from everything down to zero, potentially leaving reactivation of underlying pathogens, which is by levels of magnitude more complex than the physical disability it can cause and makes it imperative that you VACCINATE YOUR KIDS.: https://ibb.co/cbFXrRw
Again: NONE of this is brand new, and COVID19 along with other known pathogens, seems to potentially weaken the immune system enough to reactivate underlying pathogens.
Non-SARS2 Pathogens
COVID and RSV thankfully have been downgraded on WastewaterSCAN to "Medium" and "low" respectively.: https://ibb.co/k2SpgLR
However, quite a number of pathogens are still ranking in the HIGH level: FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) and the gastro pathogens Norovirus and Rotavirus are still out there.
HMPV often presents with a rash and is related to RSV:
The prevention for all these respiratory diseses is the same!
Be conscious of crowds.
Wear a mask in places with low air filtration.
Keep the air clean!
Stay home if you are sick!
For norovirus and rotavirus, it's important to wash hands with soap and warm water for 20sec.
:ms_arrow_right: DO NOT depend on gloves and hand sanitizer to control Norovirus, the particles are very resistant to alcohol.
H5N1
Nothing above here has scientists sitting up at attention right now except one thing: H5N1 bird flu.
H5N1 has jumped to dairy cattle (after infecting numerous other species such as seals, fox, deer, etc.), has been found in cattle in TX, KS, MI, NM, and now Idaho.: https://ibb.co/1JgGY2v
Before now, almost all transmission was bird-to-other-species. "Cow-to-cow transmission cannot be ruled out" and will be a disaster for the food supply if not controlled.: https://ibb.co/mDKVZ7R
There is resistance amongst dairy farmers in the US and in Europe to get their cattle tested.
The absolute worst case scenario is if it "makes the leap" to pigs. That means, if genetically it mutates (like COVID-19 is doing) to be able to:
---Infect pigs.
---Gain capability of pig-to-pig transmission.
The genetic "leap" from bird to mammals was very large, and will also be the "leap" from cattle to pig.....but the "leap" from pigs and ferrets to humans after that will be really, really small.
This would be the same route the Spanish Flu took 106 years ago: Birds -> pigs -> humans.
It is...really not a good time to consume unpasteurized, raw dairy products.
:ms_arrow_right: I'm spending a lot of words on this because so far, this thing has a 50% kill rate**. That is, 1 out of every 2 people who contract H5N1 will die.
I don't know what else to say. We MUST push for thorough farm testing, biosecurity, and intense transmission research.
Stay safe, I hope you had a GREAT holiday, and don't forget to use some form of source control in your daily adventures! 💐
The very first canon of nursing … is this: to keep the air [the patient] breathes as pure as the external air, without chilling him.” —Florence Nightingale—1858
Die Influenza-Zahlen steigen - auch bei Schulkindern. Eine Impfung von Jüngeren könnte große Effekte auf die gesamte Bevölkerung haben, auch wenn sie kontrovers diskutiert wird. Von Korinna Hennig.
"Infection status:
Released July 28, 2023, 2:30 p.m.
As of period from July 17, 2023 - July 23, 2023 -
No. of patients
per medical facility (nationwide):
13.91
Change from prev. week: +2.87" https://mainichi.jp/english/covid19
🔸Rising trend continuing over 10 weeks with higher numbers in Okinawa, Kyushu and Shikoku.
If current rate of increase continues we'll reach Dec 2022's numbers (8th wave peak) in Sept. #CovidIsNotOver#Japan
The most recent #flu and #rsv report that NYC has released goes up to February 3. It shows a large, steady drop in RSV cases since the peak in December, and a slower decline in flu cases since the peak in early January.
These numbers are a bit less reliable, since they go down if less doctors order tests, but they are following the seasonal pattern, and suggest that, as with #covid these diseases pose a much lower risk now than in early January.