eleitl

@eleitl@lemmy.ml

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The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt? (interview with Peter Watts) ( thereader.mitpress.mit.edu )

The interview discusses the potential for civilizational collapse due to climate change and other environmental issues. Watts points out that the solution lies not in technological fixes, but in a fundamental change in human behavior. He argues that the current trajectory of maximizing short-term gains is unsustainable and that...

eleitl Mod ,

Dupe.

eleitl ,

Nobody is using MMF these days even for local runs. As to sfp, check https://fs.com and pick a matching pair that is cheapest. These days it makes sense to use 10G or 25G rather than 1G. Some people run 100G for their homelab, but even used it's pricy and noisy.

eleitl OP Mod ,

Notice you have to cool both in the power plant and the DC. And these DCs run up to a GW or more.

eleitl OP Mod ,

IBM does 60 deg C watercooling which can be not a lot of thermal delta in nonarctic environments. It's a lot of km of infrastructure to vent directly if you want to dissipate a nuclear reactor's worth of power in a single site.

iPad Pro with M4 chip boasts impressive performance jump compared to just-released M3 MacBook Air ( 9to5mac.com )

On raw performance might, the M4 really does live up to Apple’s promises, should deliver. Single core is up about 20% compared to all M3 chips and more than 40% compared to M2. The generational computational leap from the previous M2 iPad Pro is at least a 42% jump on single-core and multi-core.

eleitl ,

You seem to not be using open source software packaged for multiple architectures or which can be built for your binary target. Most people will be just using a browser and an office suite.

eleitl ,

No, that captures just the neuroanatomy. Not the properties like density of ion channels, type, value of the synapse and all the things we don't know yet.

eleitl ,

You seem to trust Nvidia. I don't.

eleitl ,

There are diminishing returns in semiconductor photolitho. Moore scaling is long over, absolute real estate see WSI with Cerebras, DC costs and power envelope are all sending a clear message. Quantization is there, so you can go from digital multipliers to analog and go spiking networks, but transformers and Co have little power there.

Also, the kind of economy that can carry Gen AI as business model is not a given, long term.

eleitl ,

Yes orders of magnitude, but not too many of them. The real estate of a 300 mm wafer is limited, the structure shrink is saturating and you can't get too many layers. You still need a packet switched network on the wafer even if the rest is mostly analog. Perhaps spintronics can limit the power requirements too.

eleitl ,

A free running cellular automaton (CA) approach in hardware would work, but each cell would be a much souped up SRAM cell, the interactions would be all local and 2D. Considering Cerebras is 40 G SRAM on the 300 mm WSI and is about at the cooling limit I'm afraid you do not have 5 orders of magnitude. Perhaps reversible spintronics can help with the power draw, but you still have to splat a higher dimensional network so not just local interactions into a 2D array.

eleitl ,

https://h01-release.storage.googleapis.com/data.html

Make sure you have spare 1400 terabytes.

eleitl ,

Sadly, you can't download the hardware to run models that size.

eleitl ,

Secure has no meaning.

eleitl ,

Factor in power bills and heat and noise into your calculations.

eleitl ,

I would look into thin clients and Lenovo etc. tiny PC for office on eBay. I run old low power low noise rackmount Supermicros which are nice but hard to find at low prices.

eleitl ,

And these power lines into the EU are very easy to disrupt and disrupt again after repairs.

eleitl ,

There is a reason 1984 was written by a Brit.

eleitl ,

Not enough sanctions. More are needed.

eleitl ,

Neat. At 750 Wp I wonder what the EROEI of the installation is.

eleitl OP Mod ,

Please don't use the term ecofascist indiscriminately. We don't do that around here.

How would you respond to the problem of overshoot?

eleitl OP Mod ,

You could highlight the phrase, and he'll still fail to get it.

eleitl Mod ,

Global Financial Crisis 2 is definitely a fast component in the overall collapse process. Unaccounted consumer debt is a useful facet of a diagnostic. We don't know where exactly the spark will originate that will blow up GFC2. It could as well start there, though it's not very probable.

eleitl OP Mod ,

The salmon I'm buying comes from a land based farm in Hirtshals, Denmark (see e.g. https://reasonstobecheerful.world/for-a-new-generation-of-fish-farmers-the-ocean-is-becoming-obsolete/ ). I'm trying to track down what kind of feed they use. In theory they could e.g. farm black soldier fly larva, but I doubt their pellets are 100% fish meal free. I guess I just should contact them to find it out.

eleitl ,

Interesting, wasn't aware. It remains illegal in Germany then, as long as you seed. Notice in Germany you will receive a nastygram in any case as long as you've been identified as a member in a swarm, even if you do not seed. It would be interesting if someone would contest that, though you will likely lose since technical details don't matter in most courts.

eleitl OP Mod ,

Eliminating a competitor, causing a long-lasting disruption of relations to Russia, China, Iran et al and causing migration of energy-intensive branches of industry to the US. Bleeding vassals via comprador administrations is the prequel to domestic self-cannibalization. Latter being arguably also already in progress.

eleitl OP Mod ,

I think we are already at the catabolic collapse stage where the elites are cannibalizing the periphery before the heartland. On the other hand the US has been also being stripped bare in patches for a while. So it is a simultaneous progressive process.

eleitl OP Mod ,

Nicely put. I fully agree with this description.

eleitl OP Mod ,

Also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/uk-farmers-consider-quitting-after-extreme-wet-weather-and-low-profits

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